Trends of the Week
The week of September 14-21, 2025, marks a decisive turning point for the crypto ecosystem with the emergence of unprecedented institutional consolidation. Bitcoin maintains a controlled upward trajectory around $115,700, defying the historical statistics of « Red September » with an exceptional monthly performance. This relative stability masks profound structural transformations: Bitcoin ETF inflows reached $2.8 billion, while the hashrate crossed the historic threshold of 1 ZH/s, attesting to unprecedented network security. Simultaneously, Ethereum is cementing its position as the dominant DeFi infrastructure with the upcoming Fusaka upgrade scheduled for December 2025, which promises to reduce scaling costs by 93%. The global DeFi TVL has peaked at $160 billion, with 80% of it concentrated in three major protocols, revealing rapid maturation but also a concerning centralization of liquidity.
Crypto News
1. Bitcoin Hashrate Breaks Historic 1 ZH/s Barrier
The Bitcoin network has officially crossed the zetahash threshold, with the 7-day moving average exceeding 1 ZH/s (1,000 EH/s) for the first time in its history. This technical achievement is accompanied by an estimated difficulty increase of +4.1%, bringing the total difficulty to nearly 140T. The hashprice currently stands at $53.75 per PH/s/day, reflecting the growing competitive pressure on miners’ margins despite the network’s enhanced robustness.
Analysis — This technical milestone confirms the ongoing professionalization of Bitcoin mining and significantly strengthens the network’s security against 51% attacks. However, the compression of miner margins (hashprice at $53) could accelerate industrial consolidation towards the most efficient operators.
In brief — The Bitcoin network achieves record security at 1 ZH/s, but miner profitability is declining due to increased competition.
2. Bitcoin ETF Inflows Hit $2.8 Billion in September
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $2.8 billion in September 2025, with BlackRock’s IBIT dominating the flows with $1.67 billion in inflows. This sustained institutional demand comes with an estimated 70% probability of reaching new all-time highs, testifying to the growing appetite of institutional investors for Bitcoin exposure.
Analysis — These massive flows reflect mature institutional adoption that goes beyond speculation to become rooted in sustainable wealth allocation strategies. The concentration in IBIT reveals a preference for established managers, consolidating the ETF ecosystem around a few dominant players.
In brief — Institutional adoption of Bitcoin via ETFs is accelerating with $2.8 billion in net inflows, signaling a lasting integration into traditional portfolios.
3. Ethereum Prepares for its Fusaka Upgrade in December 2025
The Ethereum blockchain has confirmed the deployment of its next major upgrade, « Fusaka, » for December 3, 2025. It will integrate PeerDAS (EIP-7594) and two successive BPO forks. This technical evolution promises to more than double blob capacity from 6/9 to 14/21, while reducing Layer 2 costs by up to 93%. The upgrade aims to strengthen Ethereum’s role as the settlement layer for DeFi.
Analysis — Fusaka represents a crucial step towards Ethereum’s scalability without compromising on decentralization. The drastic reduction in L2 costs could trigger a new wave of DeFi adoption and solidify Ethereum’s dominance over alternative blockchains.
In brief — Ethereum is set to revolutionize its scalability with Fusaka in December, promising to reduce Layer 2 costs by more than tenfold.
4. DeFi TVL Rebounds to $160 Billion But Remains Concentrated
The DeFi ecosystem shows a total TVL of $160.56 billion in Q3 2025, marking a 41% increase for the quarter. However, this growth masks extreme concentration: Aave ($41.8 billion), Lido ($39 billion), and EigenLayer ($19.3 billion) hold 62% of the total TVL. Ethereum and Solana are dominating this expansion with respective increases of 50% and 30% since July.
Analysis — This record concentration of TVL on three protocols raises questions of systemic resilience. While it demonstrates the maturity of these platforms, it creates potential contagion risks in the event of a major player’s failure.
In brief — DeFi is returning to its peaks with $160 billion in TVL, but 80% of the funds are concentrated in a handful of dominant protocols.
5. U.S. Crypto Regulation Accelerates with SEC Agenda
The SEC has unveiled its regulatory agenda for Spring 2025, which includes specific rule proposals for crypto-assets, amendments to exchange rules for alternative trading systems, and modernized custody rules. This regulatory roadmap, coordinated with the CFTC, aims to eliminate the regulatory uncertainty that has pushed many projects abroad.
Analysis — This coordinated regulatory clarification marks a major turning point towards the mainstream integration of crypto-assets into the U.S. financial system. The collaborative SEC-CFTC approach could trigger a massive return of crypto projects to the United States.
In brief — U.S. authorities are accelerating crypto regulatory clarity with a coordinated SEC-CFTC agenda for 2025.
6. Europe’s MiCA Shows its Limits After 9 Months of Application
Nine months after MiCA came into force, the French, Austrian, and Italian authorities are warning about the shortcomings of the European regime. Regulators point to fragmented application across jurisdictions, high coordination costs, and the inability to require cybersecurity certification during authorization. Over 40 CASP licenses have been issued, mainly in Germany and the Netherlands.
Analysis — These early criticisms of MiCA reveal the challenges of regulatory harmonization at the European level. The observed fragmentation could benefit the most permissive jurisdictions and undermine the goal of a single market for crypto-assets.
In brief — Europe’s MiCA is revealing its structural weaknesses after 9 months, requiring adjustments to avoid regulatory fragmentation.
7. Institutional Crypto Adoption Still in Early Stages, says JPMorgan
JPMorgan estimates that institutional adoption of crypto-assets remains in its initial phases despite encouraging signs. Institutions hold about 25% of Bitcoin ETPs, and 85% of surveyed firms are already allocating or plan to allocate to digital assets in 2025. Bullish’s IPO and the GENIUS Act have revived expectations of large-scale adoption, with record institutional volumes on the CME.
Analysis — JPMorgan’s assessment suggests that the potential for institutional growth is still largely untapped. The combination of regulatory clarity and a mature infrastructure could trigger a massive acceleration in institutional adoption.
In brief — Institutional crypto adoption remains embryonic, according to JPMorgan, suggesting considerable growth potential ahead.
8. Solana Cements its Position with Major Ecosystem Developments
The Solana ecosystem is preparing for major technical upgrades in 2025, including the implementation of Firedancer, a doubling of block space, and a new consensus algorithm that eliminates vote transactions. These improvements are accompanied by growing institutional interest, with Solana shifting from speculative questions (« should we invest? ») to practical ones (« how do we use it? »).
Analysis — This shift in the discourse around Solana, from speculation to utility, is a testament to its ecosystem’s maturation. The planned technical improvements could reposition Solana as a credible alternative to Ethereum for high-frequency applications.
In brief — Solana is preparing major technical upgrades for 2025, solidifying its position as a high-performance alternative to Ethereum.
Retrospective Analysis: What has happened since our last watch?
Since our previous analysis on September 7, our scenarios have generally been confirmed, with a few important nuances. The « institutional consolidation » scenario materialized beyond our expectations, with Bitcoin ETF inflows exceeding our projections ($2.8 billion vs. an anticipated $1.5 billion). Bitcoin’s resilience against the historical « Red September » validates our hypothesis of seasonal decorrelation under institutional influence. However, we underestimated the speed at which the Bitcoin hashrate would cross the 1 ZH/s threshold, which it did 15 days ahead of our estimate. The concentration of DeFi TVL in three protocols (80%) also exceeds our most pessimistic projections on centralization. Finally, the acceleration of U.S. regulatory clarification via the SEC’s agenda confirms our « regulatory clarity catalyst » scenario with perfect market timing.
Strategic Outlook & New Crypto Scenarios
Interaction of Scenarios
The new scenarios for October 2025 revolve around three converging axes: the institutional leverage effect amplifying both downside and upside volatility, the technological battle between Ethereum and Solana for Layer 1 dominance, and the transatlantic regulatory arbitrage between U.S. and European approaches. These three dynamics influence each other, creating feedback loops that can accelerate or slow mainstream adoption depending on which triggers are activated.
Scenario A: Institutional Volcanic Eruption
A sharp acceleration of institutional adoption triggered by a cascade of positive regulatory news and massive ETF inflows, propelling Bitcoin towards $135,000 and pulling the entire crypto ecosystem in its wake.
- Detailed Crypto Triggers:
- Primary Price Threshold (BTC Price): Bitcoin breaks $125,000 to the upside AND holds this level for 5 consecutive days. (Confirms a major technical resistance breakout with institutional validation.)
- Institutional Metric (Combined ETF Flows): Weekly net inflows into combined Bitcoin + Ethereum ETFs exceed $2 billion for 3 consecutive weeks. (Indicates institutional adoption accelerating exponentially.)
- Regulatory Indicator (SEC Approvals): The SEC approves at least 3 new crypto ETFs (Solana, XRP, or others) within 30 days. (Signals a massive and coordinated regulatory opening.)
- Estimated Probability: 35%
- Possible Crypto Strategies: Aggressive positioning on leaders (BTC/ETH), exposure to alternative Layer 1s via future ETFs, volatility hedging with options, defensive allocation to stablecoins for quick corrections.
Scenario B: Paralyzing Regulatory Fragmentation
Regulatory divergences between the U.S. and Europe create market fragmentation, slowing institutional adoption and keeping Bitcoin in a $100,000-$120,000 range for months.
- Detailed Crypto Triggers:
- Regulatory Threshold (US-EU Contradictions): Publication of at least 2 major contradictory regulations between the SEC and MiCA authorities within 60 days. (Creates paralyzing legal uncertainty for global players.)
- Liquidity Metric (ETF Volumes): Average daily volumes of Bitcoin ETFs drop below $1 billion for 2 consecutive weeks. (Indicates temporary institutional disengagement.)
- Technical Indicator (BTC Range Trading): Bitcoin remains confined within a $100k-$120k range for more than 45 calendar days. (Confirms a prolonged consolidation phase under regulatory uncertainty.)
- Estimated Probability: 40%
- Possible Crypto Strategies: Range trading on BTC/ETH, regulatory arbitrage between jurisdictions, focus on lightly regulated DeFi protocols, geographical diversification of crypto exposures.
Scenario C: Layer 1 Revolution and Ecosystem Reshuffling
Solana or another alternative blockchain captures significant market share from Ethereum, triggering a major rebalancing of market caps and DeFi flows.
- Detailed Crypto Triggers:
- TVL Migration Threshold: The combined TVL of Solana + alternatives exceeds 25% of Ethereum’s TVL for the first time. (Confirms an effective migration of DeFi capital to alternatives.)
- Performance Metric (SOL/ETH Ratio): The SOL/ETH ratio gains more than 40% in 30 calendar days. (Indicates a massive rotation of institutional capital towards Solana.)
- Adoption Indicator (DeFi Project Migrations): At least 5 major DeFi protocols (>$500M TVL) announce their migration or expansion to Solana within 45 days. (Signals a structural and lasting ecosystem shift.)
- Estimated Probability: 25%
- Possible Crypto Strategies: Tactical allocation to SOL and the Solana ecosystem, Layer 1 diversification (AVAX, SUI, APT), long Solana / short Ethereum hedge, focus on native multi-chain protocols.
Key Indicators of the Week
Indicators Synthesis
The convergence of on-chain and market signals this week reveals a fascinating dichotomy between technical robustness and the fragility of operational margins. The historic crossing of the 1 ZH/s hashrate threshold for Bitcoin coincides with a compression of mining revenues, illustrating the accelerated professionalization of the sector. At the same time, the record concentration of DeFi TVL in three protocols (80%) reflects a rapid but potentially fragile maturation of the decentralized ecosystem. Sustained ETF flows ($2.8 billion) contrast with Bitcoin’s contained volatility, suggesting effective institutional absorption of market shocks.
Market Metrics
- Total Crypto Market Cap
-
Data: $4.04T (+0.25% 24h) | 2025-09-21 21:00 UTC
Sources: CoinMarketCap / CoinGecko
Analysis: The stability of the global market cap around $4T demonstrates the growing maturity of the crypto market, capable of absorbing institutional flows without excessive volatility while maintaining sustained organic growth.
Bitcoin On-Chain Metrics
- Bitcoin 7-day Hashrate
-
Data: 1.037 ZH/s (+4.96% weekly) | 2025-09-15 00:00 UTC
Sources: Hashrate Index / The Miner Mag
Analysis: Surpassing the zetahash threshold establishes Bitcoin as the world’s most secure decentralized network, but pressure on miner margins (hashprice at $53) could accelerate industrial consolidation toward the most efficient operators.
- Bitcoin Price
-
Data: $115,715.5 (+0.05% 24h, +83.30% YoY) | 2025-09-21 21:02 EDT
Sources: YCharts / Yahoo Finance
Analysis: Bitcoin’s remarkable stability around $115k defies the historical seasonal patterns of « Red September, » confirming the stabilizing influence of institutional flows and the maturation of the crypto-asset market.
DeFi & Layer 1 Alternatives Ecosystem
- DeFi Total Value Locked (TVL)
-
Data: $160.56 billion (+41% Q3) with 80% concentrated in 3 protocols | 2025-09-18 12:00 UTC
Analysis: The resurgence of DeFi TVL masks a worrying concentration, with Aave (26%), Lido (24%), and EigenLayer (12%) controlling 62% of the funds, creating potential systemic risks despite the sector’s impressive growth.
Upcoming Strategic Crypto Deadlines
- December 3, 2025 – Ethereum Fusaka Upgrade: Deployment of PeerDAS and massive increase in blob capacity, reducing Layer 2 costs by 93%.
- September 18, 2025 – Bitcoin Difficulty Adjustment: Estimated increase of +4.81%, bringing difficulty to ~143T, reflecting continued hashrate growth.
- December 2025 – ESMA/EBA Review of MiCA: First official assessment of the European regime’s supervisory effectiveness after one year of application.
Risk Warning
The information and analysis presented in this article are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are subject to high volatility and risk of total loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results. It is essential to consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decision and never to invest more than you can afford to lose.
Comprehensive Glossary
- TVL (Total Value Locked): The total amount of cryptocurrencies locked in DeFi protocols, a key indicator of the adoption and health of the decentralized ecosystem.
- Hashrate: A measure of the total computational power used to secure the Bitcoin network, expressed in hashes per second (EH/s, ZH/s).
- Hashprice: A metric indicating the daily revenue generated by miners for each petahash of computing power deployed.
- Fusaka: The next Ethereum upgrade integrating PeerDAS to improve scalability and reduce the costs of Layer 2 solutions.
- MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets): The unified European regulatory framework for crypto-assets, which came into force in December 2024.
- Bitcoin ETF: Exchange-Traded Funds that allow exposure to Bitcoin without direct ownership, facilitating institutional access to cryptocurrencies.
Strat Finance Advisory 