Strat Finance Advisory

Weekly Summary

The week of September 8-14, 2025 was marked by remarkable convergence of macroeconomic signals, all pointing toward coordinated monetary easing by major central banks. This synchronization materialized through bond yield compression, relative stability of equity indices despite significant sectoral movements, and contained volatility reflecting investor confidence in economic transition management. Oracle’s extraordinary performance (+36% in one session) perfectly illustrates the premium accorded to companies positioned in AI¹ infrastructure, a sector now considered strategic by institutional investors.

Equity Markets

S&P 500¹

Data: 6,554.41 points (+0.06%) | 2025-09-12 16:00 EST

Sources: Yahoo Finance / Investing.com

Analysis: The flagship U.S. index maintains its upward trajectory with YTD¹ of +8.6%, supported by sectoral rotation toward infrastructure technology. The 6,600 point level now constitutes a major technical resistance, while 6,480 points offer solid support. Low volatility (VIX¹ at 14.76) suggests a market confident in the soft landing orchestrated by the Fed¹.

Nasdaq 100

Data: All-time high reached (+0.1% Friday) | 2025-09-08 16:00 EST

Sources: Saxo Bank / Reuters

Analysis: The technology index fully benefits from the AI revolution with Oracle leading. Tech sector outperformance reflects accelerating adoption of generative AI by enterprises. However, attention to valuation levels that tolerate no disappointment on guidance.

Bond Markets & Rates

US 10-Year Rate

Data: 4.06% (+4 bp¹ daily) | 2025-09-12 18:01 EDT

Sources: YCharts / Trading Economics

Analysis: After touching a 5-month low at 4.00%, the 10-year rate reflects complete integration of a Fed easing cycle. The 18 bp decline over the month confirms bond markets anticipate at least 75 bp of cuts by end-2025. The 2-10 year curve at +50 bp suggests successful soft landing expectations.

ECB¹ Deposit Rate

Data: 2.00% (unchanged) | 2025-09-11 14:45 CET

Sources: ECB / Trading Economics

Analysis: The ECB maintains its strategic pause awaiting clearer signals on inflation and growth. Staff projections target average inflation of 2.1% in 2025, allowing the institution to preserve its options. The differential with US rates could support the euro if the Fed becomes more aggressive.

Currencies

EUR/USD

Data: 1.1736 (+0.02%) | 2025-09-12 22:00 GMT

Sources: ExchangeRates.org / ECB

Analysis: The euro maintains stability against Fed cut expectations, moving in a tight 1.1642-1.1763 range for the week. Prudent investor positioning ahead of Fed/ECB announcements limits directional moves. More marked Fed easing could propel the pair toward 1.20.

Commodities

Gold

Data: $3,642.37/ounce (+0.29%) | 2025-09-12 17:00 EST

Sources: Trading Economics / UBS Research

Analysis: New historical high for gold, driven by negative real rate expectations and persistent geopolitical tensions. UBS raises target to $3,800/ounce end-2025. Central bank purchases (900-950 tonnes expected this year) and ETF¹ demand structurally support the precious metal.

WTI¹ Oil

Data: $62.56/barrel (+0.43%) | 2025-09-12 18:00 EST

Sources: Trading Economics / World Bank

Analysis: U.S. crude moves in a $60-65 range awaiting OPEC+¹ decisions. The 8.87% yearly decline reflects global economic slowdown fears despite Middle East geopolitical tensions.

Volatility & Sentiment

VIX¹ S&P 500

Data: 14.76 points (+0.34%) | 2025-09-12 16:15 EST

Sources: Boursorama / TradingView

Analysis: The fear index remains at historically low levels, reflecting market confidence in soft landing. Contango structure in futures contracts suggests anticipation of increased post-Fed volatility. Critical level to watch: 18 points.

Strategic Upcoming Events

• September 17, 2025 – Fed FOMC¹ Decision: First easing test with 93% probability for -25bp. Major impact on USD and global yield curves.

Source: Federal Reserve

• September 18, 2025 – Bank of England Meeting: Hold anticipated at 4% but vote and guidance crucial for November. GBP/USD sensitive to dovish signals.

Source: Bank of England

Risk Warning

The information and analysis presented in this article are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Indicators Glossary

• S&P 500¹: Standard & Poor’s 500, U.S. stock index of 500 largest market caps.
• VIX¹: Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, implied volatility barometer.
• YTD¹: Year-to-Date, performance since year start.
• bp¹: Basis point, equivalent to 0.01%.
• FOMC¹: Federal Open Market Committee, Fed monetary policy committee.
• ECB¹: European Central Bank.
• Fed¹: Federal Reserve.
• AI¹: Artificial Intelligence.
• ETF¹: Exchange-Traded Fund.
• WTI¹: West Texas Intermediate, U.S. oil benchmark.
• OPEC+¹: Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies.