Weekly Trends
The cryptocurrency market displayed mixed signals during the first week of September 2025, with a moderate technical correction aligning with historical September patterns. Bitcoin oscillated between $108,000 and $113,000 while total market capitalization stabilized around $3.83 trillion. This consolidation occurs amid widespread anticipation of Fed monetary policy decisions, with rate cut probability now established at 97.6%. Alternative digital assets showed relative resilience, with Bitcoin dominance falling to 57.3% in favor of Ethereum, which crossed 14.2% market share.
News
1. Bitcoin corrects to $108,000 early week before recovering to $111,000¹
Bitcoin began September with a technical correction, briefly dipping below $108,000 on September 1st before rebounding toward $111,000 by week’s end. This volatility aligns with September’s historical bearish trend, averaging -3.77% since 2013.
Analysis — This correction proves more moderate than previous September years, suggesting growing market maturity. The $110,000 psychological resistance becomes a critical pivot level for the month ahead.
In brief — Bitcoin demonstrates better-than-expected resilience to September seasonal pressures.
2. Fed confirms 97.6% probability of September rate cut²
Financial markets now price in near-certainty of Fed rate cuts during the September 16-17 meeting, with only 2.4% probability of maintaining status quo. This expectation follows disappointing August employment data.
Analysis — Rate cuts traditionally constitute a bullish catalyst for cryptocurrencies by increasing risk appetite. However, a « buy the rumor, sell the news » effect could limit immediate impact if expectations are already fully priced in.
In brief — Cryptos position themselves to benefit from imminent monetary easing.
3. Ethereum gains ground with 14.2% market dominance³
Ethereum strengthened its relative position during the week, with market share climbing to 14.2% while Bitcoin retreated to 57.3%. This rotation accompanied significant institutional accumulation, with corporate treasuries now holding 4.44 million ETH.
Analysis — This dynamic reflects growing appetite for alternative assets and institutional portfolio diversification. The Ethereum ecosystem benefits from DeFi application growth and real-world asset tokenization.
In brief — Ethereum capitalizes on sector rotation at Bitcoin’s expense.
4. Massive token unlocks: $4.5 billion expected in September⁴
September 2025 concentrates the year’s largest token unlock wave at $4.5 billion, notably Sui ($153-184M), Ethena ($108M), and Arbitrum ($45M). These events create potential downward pressure on affected segments.
Analysis — This unlock concentration partly explains September investor caution. The best-prepared projects will absorb this additional liquidity through robust governance and utility mechanisms.
In brief — 2025’s largest unlock wave tests ecosystem resilience.
5. SEC unveils crypto regulatory reform agenda⁵
The Securities and Exchange Commission presented its crypto regulation reform plan on September 4th, including exemptions for certain digital assets and possible trading on traditional platforms. This initiative marks a pro-crypto pivot under the Trump administration.
Analysis — This regulatory clarification constitutes a fundamental catalyst for institutional adoption. Crypto integration into traditional financial infrastructure opens pathways to a new structural growth phase.
In brief — Favorable regulatory agenda accelerates institutional cryptocurrency adoption.
6. DeFi sector posts 72% TVL growth in 2025⁶
Decentralized finance protocols recorded 72% growth in total value locked (TVL) since early 2025, reaching $152.15 billion. Aave maintains dominance with 54% market share, while Euler and Maple each cross $3 billion.
Analysis — This growth demonstrates DeFi protocol maturation and growing institutional investor adoption. Platform diversification strengthens overall ecosystem resilience.
In brief — DeFi confirms its status as a viable alternative financial infrastructure.
7. Token buybacks reach $166 million in August⁷
DeFi platforms conducted token buybacks totaling $166 million in August, led by Hyperliquid and Pump.fun. This strategy aims to support valuations and demonstrate team confidence in their projects.
Analysis — Token buybacks become a standard tokenomics management tool, similar to stock buybacks in traditional finance. This practice underscores crypto sector professionalization.
In brief — DeFi protocols adopt sophisticated valuation strategies.
8. NFT market regains momentum with +9% August volumes⁸
The NFT sector recorded its best two-month period with 9% trading volume growth in August, reaching $578 million. This recovery is driven by growing adoption and Base network activity.
Analysis — NFT market recovery reflects evolution toward more utilitarian use cases, moving beyond pure speculation. Physical space integration like galleries confirms sector maturation.
In brief — NFTs regain attractiveness through concrete applications.
Strategic Outlook & Scenarios
Scenario Interaction
The following scenarios center around the September 16-17 Fed decision and the market’s ability to absorb token unlocks. The bullish continuation scenario (65% probability) relies on positive fundamentals (regulatory reforms, DeFi growth) while the extended correction scenario (35%) incorporates technical and seasonal risks. These probabilities reflect the balance between structural positive catalysts and cyclical pressures.
Scenario A: Extended Technical Consolidation
Bitcoin tests critical support between $105,000-$108,000 with possible extension toward $95,000 upon breakdown. This scenario incorporates token unlock pressure and traditional September weakness, amplified by institutional profit-taking.
- Estimated Probability: 35%
- Potential Strategies: Increase stablecoin allocation, scale purchases at key support levels ($105K, $100K, $95K), focus on solid fundamental DeFi protocols for opportunistic buying.
Scenario B: Anticipated Structural Recovery
The market anticipates positive effects from Fed rate cuts and SEC regulatory reforms, propelling Bitcoin toward $120,000 and triggering massive altcoin rotation. 72% DeFi growth and improved institutional sentiment support this movement.
- Estimated Probability: 65%
- Potential Strategies: Strengthen Bitcoin positions above $112,000, diversify into Ethereum and DeFi leaders (AAVE, UNI), selective exposure to governance tokens benefiting from TVL growth.
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Brief’s Glossary
- TVL (Total Value Locked)¹: Key metric measuring funds deposited in DeFi protocols, indicating their adoption and utility.
- Token Unlocks²: Time-distributed mechanism to avoid excessive selling pressure on markets.
Risk Disclaimer
The information and analysis presented in this article are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.
Strat Finance Advisory 