Strat Finance Advisory

Weekly Synthesis

This week’s energy indicators reveal a market undergoing structural transformation. Brent oil prices oscillate around $68-69/barrel, reflecting the precarious balance between geopolitical tensions and supply-demand fundamentals. European natural gas remains under pressure at €31.79/MWh, benefiting from robust LNG imports but facing uncertainties about Russian supply. This pivotal period illustrates the transition from a fossil fuel energy system to a diversified mix where renewables gain influence on price formation and investment strategies.

Oil Prices (Brent, WTI)¹

Strategic Importance: Global benchmarks for crude oil pricing, influence global inflation, industrial margins, and energy geopolitical balances.

Weekly Data: Brent closed at $68.99/barrel on September 3 (-5.10% year-on-year), WTI at $65.59/barrel (+2.47% on September 2 session).

Analysis: The divergence between geopolitical tensions (Iran sanctions, Ukraine attacks) and OPEC+ increases (547,000 bpd) maintains volatility. Anticipation of Q4 2025 surplus weighs on prices despite geopolitical risks.

Source: Trading Economics

European Natural Gas Prices (TTF)²

Strategic Importance: European gas benchmark, determines electricity and industrial production costs, indicator of continental energy security.

Weekly Data: TTF at €31.79/MWh on September 3 (-10.77% year-on-year), EU import price at $11.62/MMBtu in July (-6.04% month-on-month).

Analysis: The decline reflects LNG imports over 50% higher and well-filled storage. Discussions on complete Russian gas ban by 2027 create structural uncertainty for European supply.

Source: Trading Economics

Renewable Energy Investments³

Strategic Importance: Indicator of energy transition speed, reveals capital allocation trends and sectoral competitiveness.

Weekly Data: $386 billion invested in H1 2025 (+10% vs H1 2024), offshore wind: $39 billion (vs $31 billion for full 2024).

Analysis: Offshore wind becomes the new investment driver while utility solar declines (-19%). This reallocation demonstrates sector maturation favoring project quality over volume.

Source: BloombergNEF

Energy Storage Costs⁴

Strategic Importance: Critical infrastructure for integrating intermittent renewables, determines economic viability of electrical transition.

Weekly Data: 2025 average costs: $200-400/kWh, residential installations: $6,000-23,000 complete, continuous decline since 2022 ($1,000/kWh).

Analysis: Falling costs (divided by 2.5 since 2022) accelerate massive deployment. The UK (+427 MW in August) illustrates this dynamic transforming global electrical grids.

Source: BSLBATT

Green Hydrogen Prices⁵

Strategic Importance: Key energy vector for industrial and heavy transport decarbonization, indicator of electrolyzer technological maturity.

Weekly Data: Q2 2025 range: $3,865/tonne (US) to $6,260/tonne (UAE), 2030 target: $1,000/tonne for competitiveness.

Analysis: Major regional disparities reflect access to cheap renewables and electrolysis infrastructure. Expected decline in late 2025 depends on equipment cost reduction and government incentives.

Source: IMARC Group

Voluntary Carbon Market⁶

Strategic Importance: Decarbonization financing mechanism, reveals corporate demand for climate solutions and evolution toward quality.

Weekly Data: H1 2025 credit retirements: 95 million (+9% vs H1 2024), value +32%, Q2 issuances: 77 million (+39% vs Q1).

Analysis: Value growth (+32%) exceeding volume (+9%) confirms market quality upgrade. Emergence of carbon removal credits and reinforced integrity standards are redefining corporate demand.

Source: Carbon Credits

Upcoming Strategic Deadlines

• September 7, 2025 – Virtual OPEC+ Meeting: Decision on continuing production increases or maintaining current levels facing Q4 surplus risk. Source: Reuters
• September 8-10, 2025 – Second Africa Climate Summit (ACS2) in Addis Ababa: Finalizing African positions before COP30, focus on climate financing. Source: African Union
• November 10-21, 2025 – COP30 in Belém (Brazil): New round of national NDCs for 2035, South-South climate financing issues and Article 6 mechanisms. Source: COP30 Presidency

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Indicators’ Glossary

• Oil Prices (Brent, WTI)¹: International benchmarks setting crude oil prices, Brent (North Sea) and WTI (Texas) serving as references for global contracts.
• European Natural Gas Prices (TTF)²: Title Transfer Facility, Dutch virtual hub serving as European gas price reference, key indicator of continental energy security.
• Renewable Energy Investments³: Financial flows directed toward developing solar, wind, hydroelectric and other clean technology projects.
• Energy Storage Costs⁴: Pricing of electrochemical storage technologies, essential for integrating intermittent renewables into grids.
• Green Hydrogen Prices⁵: Production cost of hydrogen through water electrolysis powered by renewable energy, key vector for industrial decarbonization.
• Voluntary Carbon Market⁶: Trading system where companies buy carbon credits to offset their emissions, distinct from regulatory compliance markets.