Strat Finance Advisory

Federal Reserve Monetary Policy (The Fed)¹

Strategic Importance: Influences global capital costs, asset valuation, and international flows.

Publication Schedule:
Last decision: July 30, 2025 – Rate: 4.25-4.50%
Next decision: September 17, 2025

Analysis: The Fed held rates for the fifth consecutive meeting, but two governors voted for a cut, marking the first dual dissent since 1993. Markets now anticipate a 90% chance of a September cut. Trading Economics

European Central Bank Rates (ECB)²

Strategic Importance: Determines financing conditions in the eurozone and influences European capital flows.

Publication Schedule:
Last decision: July 24, 2025 – Deposit rate: 2.00%
Next decision: September 12, 2025

Analysis: The ECB ended its easing cycle after eight consecutive cuts, maintaining a wait-and-see stance amid trade uncertainties and inflation stabilized at 2%. ECB

Bank of Japan Policy Rate (BoJ)³

Strategic Importance: First developed economy to exit negative rates, influences global carry trade strategies.

Publication Schedule:
Last decision: July 31, 2025 – Rate: 0.50%
Next decision: September 19, 2025

Analysis: The BoJ maintains gradual normalization with 63% of economists anticipating a Q4 hike. Inflation has exceeded the 2% target for over three years. Reuters

Eurozone Inflation (HICP)⁴

Strategic Importance: Determines European monetary policy direction and influences market expectations.

Publication Schedule:
Last release: August 19, 2025 – Rate: 2.0% (July)
Next release: August 31, 2025 (August flash)

Analysis: Inflation remains stable at the 2% target for the second consecutive month, with services slowdown offset by industrial goods acceleration. Eurostat

US 10-Year Treasury Yields⁵

Strategic Importance: Global benchmark for long-term capital costs and barometer of economic expectations.

Publication Schedule:
Last value: August 28, 2025 – Yield: 4.22%
Publication: Daily

Analysis: Yields remain near year-highs, reflecting Fed independence tensions and fiscal concerns, despite rate cut expectations. Federal Reserve

VIX Volatility Index⁶

Strategic Importance: Measures market fear and guides financial risk management strategies.

Publication Schedule:
Last value: August 29, 2025 – Level: 15.36
Publication: Continuous during market hours

Analysis: The VIX continued its normalization after the early-August peak, signaling renewed investor confidence and more stable market conditions. YCharts

Upcoming Strategic Deadlines

• September 6, 2025 – US Employment Report (August): Crucial data for the Fed’s September decision, following July’s downward revisions that reinforced rate cut expectations. Fortune
• September 11, 2025 – US Inflation (August): Key indicator to assess persistent inflationary pressures and potential scope of monetary easing. S&P Global
• September 17, 2025 – Fed Monetary Policy Decision: High probability of first rate cut since the tightening cycle, with Jerome Powell press conference. Trading Economics
• September 19, 2025 – Bank of Japan Decision: Monitoring continued monetary normalization amid US trade tensions. Equals Money

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Indicators’ Glossary

• Federal Reserve Monetary Policy (The Fed)¹ : Framework of policy rates and balance sheet management guiding US and global financial conditions.
• ECB Rates² : European monetary policy instruments including deposit, main refinancing, and marginal lending facility rates.
• BoJ Policy Rate³ : Japanese monetary policy rate, exiting a long period of negative rates toward normalization.
• HICP (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices)⁴ : Standardized inflation measure in the eurozone, basis for ECB’s 2% target.
• 10-Year Treasury Yields⁵ : US 10-year government bond remuneration rate, global benchmark for long-term capital costs.
• VIX Index⁶ : Measure of implied volatility expected on the S&P 500, indicator of investor risk aversion.