Federal Reserve Monetary Policy (The Fed)¹
Strategic Importance: Impacts global capital costs, asset valuation, and risk-taking in digital assets.
Publication Schedule:
Last decision: July 31, 2025 – Rate: 5.25-5.50%
Next decision: September 17-18, 2025
Analysis: Jerome Powell executed a major dovish pivot at Jackson Hole, signaling that « adjusting our policy stance » might be warranted. Markets now price in a 71% probability for a 25 basis point cut in September, massively favoring cryptocurrencies. CoinGape
US Consumer Price Index (CPI)²
Strategic Importance: Inflation measure directly linked to Fed monetary decisions and risk appetite.
Publication Schedule:
Last publication: August 13, 2025 – Value: 2.7% (July)
Next publication: September 11, 2025
Analysis: Inflation slowed to 2.7% in July, below expectations of 2.8%, strengthening arguments for monetary easing. This deceleration contributed to the week’s crypto rally, with investors anticipating a less aggressive Fed. Ainvest
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF Flows³
Strategic Importance: Barometer of institutional appetite and leading indicator of capital movements toward cryptocurrencies.
Weekly Tracking:
Bitcoin ETFs: -$194.32 million (August 21)
Ethereum ETFs: +$2.85 billion (August 11-15, record)
Analysis: Spectacular rotation of institutional flows from Bitcoin to Ethereum, with Ethereum ETFs even surpassing the network’s net issuance since the Merge. BlackRock ETHA leads with $233.59 million daily inflows, confirming institutional preference for ETH. Finway
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D)⁴
Strategic Importance: Indicator of capital rotation between Bitcoin and altcoins, signal of potential alt-season.
Current Data:
Current dominance: 59% (declining)
Ethereum dominance: 14% (up from 8% in May)
Analysis: Bitcoin dominance erodes against Ethereum and altcoins, signaling active capital rotation. This redistribution, accompanied by record ETF flows to ETH, suggests the emergence of an institution-backed alt-season. The Currency Analytics
Fear & Greed Index⁵
Strategic Importance: Market sentiment guiding allocation decisions and tactical entry/exit points.
Weekly Evolution:
Week start: 42 (Fear)
Post-Jackson Hole: 78 (Extreme Greed)
Analysis: Radical sentiment shift after Powell’s speech, moving from fear to extreme greed in 48 hours. This emotional volatility, combined with massive short position liquidations, illustrates the major psychological impact of monetary policy signals. Cointelegraph
Upcoming Strategic Deadlines
- September 17-18, 2025 – Fed FOMC Meeting: Rate decision expected with 71% probability for a 25 bps cut. Major impact on crypto liquidity and rotation toward risk assets. CoinGape
- September 11, 2025 – August CPI Release: Crucial inflation data that will confirm or deny the Fed’s dovish trajectory. A reading in line with expectations will consolidate rate cut anticipations. CoinDesk
- September 2025 – Potential XRP Spot ETF Launch: Several applications filed following the Ripple-SEC lawsuit resolution. Potential catalyst for a new wave of institutional altcoin adoption. CryptoPotato
Indicators’ Glossary
- Federal Reserve Monetary Policy (The Fed)¹ : The main tool of U.S. monetary policy, defining the rate at which banks lend reserves to each other overnight (federal funds rate).
- US Consumer Price Index (CPI)² : Official inflation measure in the United States, determining Fed monetary policy decisions.
- Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF Flows³ : Institutional capital inflows and outflows via exchange-traded funds, indicator of professional demand.
- Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D)⁴ : Percentage of total crypto market cap held by Bitcoin, indicator of capital rotation toward altcoins.
- Fear & Greed Index⁵ : Composite index measuring crypto market sentiment on a scale from 0 (extreme fear) to 100 (extreme greed).
Strat Finance Advisory 