Federal Reserve Monetary Policy (The Fed)¹
Markets anticipate an 85% probability of a 0.25 point rate cut at the September meeting, with approximately 54 basis points of reductions by year-end. The 10-year US Treasury yield stands at 4.34% as of August 18, 2025, up 0.45 points from the previous year, reflecting persistent inflationary tensions.
European Central Bank (ECB) Policy Rate²
The ECB maintains its deposit rate at 2.00% since June 2025 after eight consecutive cuts over 12 months. Markets expect only one additional cut by end-2025, with concerns related to trade tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty encouraging monetary prudence.
Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI)³
Annual inflation in the eurozone stabilized at 2.0% in July 2025, in line with the ECB’s target. Services contribute +1.46 percentage points, followed by food (+0.63 pp), non-energy industrial goods (+0.18 pp) and energy (-0.23 pp).
Chinese Industrial Growth⁴
Chinese industrial production slowed to +5.7% year-on-year in July 2025, its weakest level since November 2024. Retail sales grew only 3.7%, well below expectations of 4.6%, signaling weakening domestic demand.
S&P 500 Index⁵
The S&P 500 index closes at 6,407 points on August 20, 2025, down 0.59% for the session but up +13.99% over 12 months. Implied volatility (VIX) stands at 15.91 points, reflecting moderate investor nervousness.
Brent Oil Price⁶
Brent crude trades at $66.51 per barrel on August 20, 2025, up 1.10% for the day but down 12.54% year-on-year. The International Energy Agency forecasts prices falling below $60 in Q4 2025, a first since 2020.
Gold Price⁷
Gold ounce maintains around $3,330 on August 19, 2025, showing exceptional performance of +28.3% since the beginning of the year. Investor demand remains supported despite relative dollar and equity market stability.
Bitcoin (BTC)⁸
Bitcoin trades below $114,000 after a 3.2% correction linked to monetary policy expectations. Bitcoin dominance fell from 64.5% in early July to 59.7% mid-August, with Ethereum gaining market share in a context of crypto investment diversification.
Indicators’ Glossary
- Federal Reserve Monetary Policy (The Fed)¹ : Framework of benchmark rates and balance sheet management guiding financial conditions and influencing economic growth and inflation in the United States.
- ECB Policy Rate² : Reference interest rate used by the European Central Bank to conduct its monetary policy in the eurozone.
- Consumer Price Index (CPI)³ : Measure of changes in the general price level of goods and services consumed by households, key inflation indicator.
- Industrial Growth⁴ : Percentage change in a country’s industrial production, including manufacturing, mining and utilities, indicator of economic dynamism.
- S&P 500⁵ : US stock index weighted by market capitalization of the 500 largest listed companies, reference barometer of the US stock market.
- Brent Oil Price⁶ : International benchmark for oil prices, based on oil extracted from the North Sea, global benchmark for petroleum contracts.
- Gold Price⁷ : Price of one ounce of gold (31.1 grams) on international markets, considered a store of value and hedge against inflation and monetary instability.
- Bitcoin (BTC)⁸ : First decentralized cryptocurrency created in 2009, benchmark of the digital asset market and indicator of investor risk appetite.
Strat Finance Advisory 